Dividend Discount Model

Prosperity REIT (00808.HK): A Deep Dive into a High-Yield Value Stock

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Summary Data: 1. REIT Overview: A Resilient Portfolio in a Challenging Market Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust (Prosperity REIT) is a Hong Kong-based collective investment scheme, notable for being the first private sector REIT listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. The REIT’s primary objective is to own and … Read more

Sunlight REIT (00435.HK): A Deep Value & High-Yield Real Estate Opportunity

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Summary Data: Overview of Sunlight REIT: A Pure-Play on Hong Kong’s Challenged Commercial Market Sponsor, Management Structure, and Investment Mandate Sunlight Real Estate Investment Trust (Sunlight REIT) is a Hong Kong-authorized collective investment scheme, structured as a unit trust governed by Hong Kong law. This structure, with HSBC Institutional Trust Services (Asia) Limited serving as the … Read more

Stella International (01836.HK): A High-Quality, High-Yield Value Stock with Sustainable Dividends

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Executive Summary Stella International is a leading developer and manufacturer of premium quality footwear and leather goods. Stella, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the ticker 01836, presents a compelling investment opportunity for value-oriented investors seeking a high, sustainable dividend yield. The investment thesis is predicated on three core pillars:(1) the successful execution of … Read more

Valuing the large China state-owned Banks using Gordon Growth Model

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Valuing China Banks using Gordon Growth Model

Introduction The Gordon Growth Model, or GGM, is a valuation method for calculating the intrinsic value of a dividend-paying stock. The model is particularly suitable for valuing mature companies with stable operations and sustainable growth in dividends. In this article, a valuation exercise is carried out using the GGM to estimate the intrinsic value of … Read more

Gordon Growth Model – A great method to value dividend stocks

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Gordon Growth Model

Introduction The Gordon Growth Model, commonly known as GGM, is a simplified form of the dividend discount model that is used for estimating the intrinsic value of dividend-paying stocks. The GGM is a straight-forward but effective model that calculates the intrinsic value of a stock based on the present value of its future dividends, which … Read more

Sasseur REIT (CRPU.SI) – Estimating the Intrinsic Value, Return on Investment and Margin of Safety using the Dividend Discount Model

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Sasseur Reit intrinsic value

Summary

This article looks at the valuation of Sasseur Reit shares listed on the Singapore Exchange (Ticker: CRPU.SI). The Dividend Discount Model is used to estimate the share’s Intrinsic Value, Expected Return on Investment, and its Margin of Safety.

Introduction to Sasseur Reit

Sasseur REIT is a Singapore Exchange Mainboard-listed real estate investment trust (REIT) (SGX). It is Asia’s first publicly traded outlet mall REIT, with four outlets in China. Sponsored by Sasseur Cayman Holding Limited (Sponsor), a leading outlet operator with 16 outlets in operation as of 31 December 2022 – four of which are in Sasseur REIT’s portfolio.

Sasseur REIT is well positioned to benefit from China’s rapidly expanding outlet sector, which is being driven by rising consumption from the country’s rapidly expanding middle class. As of December 31, 2022, Sasseur REIT’s portfolio included four locations in Chongqing, Bishan, Hefei, and Kunming, with a total asset value of RMB 8.495 billion.

Dividend Discount Model

The dividend discount model is one of several methods for determining stock value. The procedure is similar to the discounted cash flow model, except that dividends are substituted for free cash flow as the cash flowing to the investor. One advantage of this method is that dividend information is easily accessible from the company’s financial reports. It is also my preferred method for valuing dividend-paying stocks. Dividends are tangible income for the investor and represent the return on investment. Dividend cash allows the investor to reinvest the proceeds in the same stock or in other, more appealing stocks, achieving the all-important compounding effect.

In the following discussion, the Dividend Discount Model is used to determine the Intrinsic Value, Expected Return on Investment, and Margin of Safety of Sasseur Reit (CRPU.SI) shares listed on the Singapore Exchange.

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Estimating the Intrinsic Value, Return on Investment and Margin of Safety of China Telecom using the Dividend Discount Model

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Share Valuation of China Telecom H-share (00728.HK)

Summary

This article looks at the valuation of China Telecom shares trading on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (Ticker: 00728.HK). The Dividend Discount Model is used to estimate the share’s Intrinsic Value, Expected Return on Investment, and its Margin of Safety.

Introduction

China Telecom is one of the 3 giant state-owned companies which dominate the telecommunications industry in China, the other two being China Mobile and China Unicom. On November 12, 2020, Trump issued Executive Order 13959 prohibiting US investors from owning securities of Chinese companies which have been tagged by the US as being Chinese military companies, including China Telecom. ADRs of China Telecom trading on the New York Stock Exchange were suspended on January 11, 2021 and were subsequently delisted.

Following the US action against its ADRs, China Telecom successfully applied for secondary listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and its A-shares began trading in August 2021, raising over 54 billion RMB for the company. The IPO was a resounding success, attracting 20 strategic investors, including Huawei Technologies and Bilibili.

As part of the requirement for its secondary listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, China Telecom made some important changes to its dividend policy:

China Telecom announces new Dividend Policy
China Telecom announces new Dividend Policy

Three important points to note here with regards to the new dividend policy.

  • China Telecom to its increase dividend payout ratio for FY2021 to not less than 60%.
  • China Telecom also committed “that within three years after the A Share Offering and Listing, the profit to be distributed by the Company in cash for each year will gradually increase to 70% or above of the profit attributable to equity holders of the Company for that year.” (Source: Company announcement 21 June 2021)
  • In contrast to the current policy of annual payouts, dividends shall be paid on an interim basis starting from FY 2022.

The new dividend policy is important in the sense that it increases the frequency of cash flow for investors, and it also serves to reduce the amount of surplus cash held on China Telecom’s books and will potentially boost the Return on Equity.

Dividend Discount Model is one of many methods for valuing stocks. The procedure is similar to the Discounted Cash Flow model, with the free cash flow being substituted dividends as the cash flowing to the investor. One advantage of using this method is that dividends data are easily available from the company’s financial reports. It is also my preferred valuation method for dividend-paying stocks. The reason being that dividends are tangible income to the investor and it represents the return of investment and return on investment. The cash from dividends allows the investor to reinvest the proceeds into the same stock or into other more attractive stocks to achieve the all important compounding effect.

This article describes the use of the Dividend Discount Model to determine the Intrinsic Value, Expected Return on Investment, and Margin of Safety of China Telecom (00728.HK) shares trading on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong.

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Purchasing H-shares of China CITIC Bank (0998.HK) for my Dividend Income Portfolio

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China CITIC Bank - Share Valuation

Summary

In this article, I examine the valuation of the H-share of China CITIC Bank (0998.HK) from the view point of a Dividend Investor. The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is used to determine its Intrinsic Value, Expected Return on Investment, and its Margin of Safety. DDM is a form of Discounted Cash Flow Analysis in which the type of cash flow used in the analysis is the Company’s regular dividend payments, discounted at the appropriate rate of return to determine the Intrinsic Value of the stock.

Introduction

The recent Evergrande debt crisis has resulted in a substantial sell down in the Hong Kong equities market, with the bulk of the price decline hitting China H-shares. A few companies on my watch list experienced price corrections which brought them into value stock territory, at least that is my humble opinion. I have recently published articles on 2 of them, namely Ping-An Insurance, Agricultural Bank of China. In this article, I would like to share my thoughts on another recent addition to my Dividend Income Portfolio, China Citic Bank (0998.HK).

As my investment philosophy evolves over time, I find myself favoring stocks which provide attractive dividends at inexpensive valuations. I used the following set of questions to help determine the Bank’s investment worthiness:

  • Does the Bank have a good long-term dividend track record?
  • Does the Bank currently offer an attractive dividend yield (above the average yield of Hang Seng Index constituents)?
  • Is the current payout ratio safe and sustainable?
  • What is the expected return on investment of the share over a 10-year period? Majority of recommendations by financial analysts have a 12 month time horizon. I find the 10-year period to be more suitable for a dividend income stock, especially one which is part of a retirement dividend income portfolio.
  • Does the stock price offer a sufficient margin of safety to its intrinsic value?
  • Are the shares considered attractive when measured against the traditional value investing yardsticks? A good dividend stock with inexpensive valuation will minimize the risk of capital impairment and increase the probability of capital gains.
  • Does the stock have a history of consistent earnings growth?

With the above questions in mind, let us delve into the analysis of the company to find the answers.

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Estimating the Intrinsic Value, Return on Investment and Margin of Safety of Ping An using the Dividend Discount Model

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Ping An - Share Valuation

Summary

This article looks at the valuation of Ping An shares trading on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (Ticker: 2318.HK). The Dividend Discount Model is used to estimate the share’s Intrinsic Value, Expected Return on Investment, and its Margin of Safety.

Continue reading to learn more.

Introduction

Ping An - 3rd Largest Insurance Company in the world
Ping An – 3rd Largest Insurance Company in the world by market capitalization

Ping An is the 3rd largest insurance company in the world by market capitalization and by the same measure, is the largest insurance company in Mainland China. Ping An has its humble beginning in Shenzhen when it was founded in 1988 at China’s first joint-stock company. Since then, its business has grown by leaps and bounds and it has diversified into other profitable business ventures, including fin-tech and banking. The company was successfully listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong on 24th June 2004.

Ping An shares hit its 52-week high on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January this year. Since that price top, the share has undergone a prolonged correction, culminating in its recent 52-week low 49.00HK$ per share on 21st September 2021. All in all, the share price has declined more than 50% from its year high.
Such a massive correction in one of the largest insurance companies in the world has certainly attracted the attention of many in the investment community. The time is right to have a closer look at the current valuation of Ping An (2318.HK) shares trading on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong.

Dividend Discount Model is one of many methods for valuing stocks. The procedure is similar to the Discounted Cash Flow model, with the free cash flow being substituted dividends as the cash flowing to the investor. One advantage of using this method is that dividends data are easily available from the company’s financial reports. It is also my preferred valuation method for dividend-paying stocks. The reason being that dividends are tangible income to the investor and it represents the return of investment and return on investment. The cash from dividends allows the investor to reinvest the proceeds into the same stock or into other more attractive stocks to achieve the all important compounding effect.

This article describes the use of the Dividend Discount Model to determine the Intrinsic Value, Expected Return on Investment, and Margin of Safety of Ping An (2318.HK) shares trading on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong.

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Purchasing H-shares of Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) for my Dividend Income Portfolio

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Agricultural Bank of China Share Valuation Intrinsic Value

Summary

In this article, I examine the valuation of the H-share of Agricultural Bank of China (ABC 1288.HK) through the eyes of a Dividend Investor. Dividend Cash Flow analysis was used to assess the H-share of Agricultural Bank of China. The Dividend Discount Model was employed to determine its Intrinsic Value, Expected Return on Investment, and its Margin of Safety.
Continue reading to learn more.

Introduction

Following on from my previous article on the H-shares of the China Construction Bank (CCB), I recently purchased the H-shares of the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC). In this article, I would like to discuss the reasons why I decided to add the shares to my Dividend Income Portfolio.

As my investment philosophy evolves over time, I find myself favoring stocks which provide attractive dividends at inexpensive valuations. I used the following set of questions to help determine the Bank’s investment worthiness:

  • Does the Bank have a good long-term dividend track record?
  • Does the Bank currently offer an attractive dividend yield (above the average yield of Hang Seng Index constituents)?
  • Is the current payout ratio safe and sustainable?
  • What is the expected return on investment of the share over a 10-year period? Majority of recommendations by financial analysts tend to have a 12 month time horizon. I find the 10-year period to be more suitable for a dividend income stock, especially one which is part of a retirement dividend income portfolio.
  • Does the stock price offer a sufficient margin of safety to its intrinsic value?
  • Are the shares considered attractive when measured against the traditional value investing yardsticks? A good dividend stock with inexpensive valuation will minimize the risk of capital impairment and increase the probability of capital gains.
  • Does the stock have a history of consistent earnings growth?

With the above questions in mind, let us delve into the analysis of the stock to find the answers.

Read more